220215 Boundary Adjustment Committee AgendaPage 1 of 2
The Corporation of the Town of Tillsonburg
Boundary Adjustment Advisory Committee
February 15, 20222
7:30 a.m. Electronic
AGENDA
1.Call to Order
2.Adoption of Agenda
Proposed Resolution #1
Moved by:
Seconded by:
THAT the Agenda as prepared for the Boundary Adjustment Advisory Committee
meeting of February 15, 2022, be adopted.
3.Minutes of the Previous Meeting
Proposed Resolution #2
Moved by:
Seconded by:
THAT the Minutes as prepared for the Boundary Adjustment Advisory Committee
meeting on January 18, 2021, be adopted.
4.Disclosures of Pecuniary Interest and the General Nature Thereof
5.Presentations
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Page 2 of 2
Next Meeting
March 15, 2022 at 7:30 a.m.
Adjournment
Proposed Resolution #3
Moved by:
Seconded by:
THAT the February 15, 2022 Boundary Adjustment Advisory Committee
meeting be adjourned at _____ a.m.
8.
Round Table
9.
7 7 .
General Business and Reports6.
6.1 Tillsonburg Residential Land Supply – Updated memo, Mapping and Density Information
6.1.1 Planning Recommendation re updated Hemson Population Report
6.2 Census 2021 Initial Release – Tillsonburg Population and Growth Update
(ATTACHMENTS 1 2 3)
(ATTACHED)
Page 1 of 3
The Corporation of the Town of Tillsonburg
Boundary Adjustment Advisory Committee
November 16, 2021
7:30 a.m.
Electronic
MINUTES
Present: Andrew Burns, Dave Beres (Chair), Cedric Tomico, Jesse Goossens,
Samantha Hamilton
Staff present:
Kyle Pratt, CAO
Kennedy Atkinson, Acting Executive Assistant
Cephas Panschow, Development Commissioner
Eric Gilbert, Senior Planner for Oxford County
1.Call to Order
The meeting was called to order at 7:32 a.m.
2.Adoption of Agenda
Resolution #1
Moved by: Cedric Tomico
Seconded by: Jesse Goossens
THAT the Agenda as prepared for the Boundary Adjustment Advisory Committee
meeting of November 16, 2021, be adopted.
Carried
3.Minutes of the Previous Meeting
Resolution #2
Page 2 of 3
Moved by: Cedric Tomico
Seconded by: Jesse Goossens
THAT the Minutes as prepared for the Boundary Adjustment Advisory Committee
meeting of October 19th, 2021, be adopted.
Carried
4.Disclosures of Pecuniary Interest and the General Nature Thereof
There were no disclosures of pecuniary interest declared.
Resolution #3
Moved by: Cedric Tomico
Seconded by: Samantha Hamilton
THAT the committee move into closed session at 7:37 a.m. to consider a proposed
or pending Acquisition or disposition of land by the municipality or local board.
Carried
5. Presentations
5.1 Eric Gilbert, Senior Planner, Oxford County Re: Oxford Planning Briefing
Memo dealt with in Closed Session.
6. Round Table
The Committee resumed open session at 8:11 a.m.
6.Next Meeting
December 21, 2021 at 7:30 a.m. – This meeting has been rescheduled to January
18th 2021.
It is requested that Eric Gilbert’s team provide information on Industrial land
expansion.
7.Adjournment
Resolution #4
Moved by: Jesse Goossens
Seconded by: Andrew Burns
Page 3 of 3
THAT the November 16, 2021 Boundary Adjustment Advisory Committee meeting
be adjourned at 8:15 a.m.
Carried
1 / 1
BRIEFING NOTE
Tillsonburg Residential Land Supply Update
Updated February 10, 2022
CPO staff have quickly reviewed the spreadsheet that was shared by the Committee and have identified
a number of comments and observations for the Committee’s consideration, as follows:
As previously shared with the Committee, CPOs year end 2021 residential supply estimate for
the Town (with updates to year end 2021) is approximately 3,000 lots/units. This estimate of
total units is comprised of the following:
o 1,200 unbuilt lots/units remaining in known/approved development in the Town (Note: many
of these development did not appear to be captured in the spreadsheet);
o 1,800 estimated lots/units that could be accommodated on the remaining undeveloped
residential lands within the Town. These estimates are currently based on the methodology
contained in the Hemson 2020 study, which is generally as follows:
Applying a gross to net adjustment factor to the gross developable land area (i.e. the
total parcel size with undevelopable areas such as flood plains and protected natural
features removed) of each parcel to estimate the net developable land area;
multiplying the estimated net developable land area of each parcel by the estimated
average net residential density (i.e. 22 units per net hectare in the Hemson study) for
new development to calculate the total unit potential for each parcel and then totaling to
determine the total lot/unit potential on such lands.
In comparison, the calculations in the spreadsheet provided by the Committee appear to be attempting
to estimate the gross density for a number of sample developments and then applying that to the gross
parcel sizes for the remaining development lands (Note: It was difficult to determine if land inventory in
the provided spreadsheet captured all such lands) in the Town.
The difficulty with such an approach, is that the proportion of the total parcel area that is not developable
can range considerably from parcel to parcel (i.e. from zero to a considerable proportion of the total
parcel area) as can the gross vs. net density in different developments (i.e. not every
development/phase has blocks for parks, storm water management ponds, schools, churches and/or
other ICI uses). As such, converting to net residential land area and density (as per the Hemson, 2020
study methodology) tends to provide a more accurate and consistent indication of development
densities and lot/unit potential on such development lands. Even then, it is recognized that net
development density and net to gross conversion factor assumptions can have a considerable impact
on the land supply calculation, which is why a relatively conservative density of 22 units/net ha and
gross to net conversion factor of 55% was used in the Hemson, 2020 study to ensure the net residential
land area and associated residential land supply estimates were not over estimated.
As previous indicated, the intent is to formally update the growth forecasts and land needs study and
related assumptions and conclusions next year (i.e. 2023), taking into consideration the 2021 Census
information and various changes in development and growth trends that may have occurred since the
last study was completed.
Prepared by: Paul Michiels, Manager of Planning Policy
Circulated to: Town of Tillsonburg Boundary Adjustment Committee
25.6 ha12.7 ha11.2 ha
8.7 ha
7.6 ha
28.2 ha
7.9 ha
5.3 ha
2.7 ha
4.4 ha
2.7 ha
1.3ha
0.92 ha
0.59 ha
Town of Tillsonburg - Land Supply Analysis
15-Feb-22
Template by Jesse Goossens, Additional info County Planning
Purpose: To determine the total supply of land based on example subdivisions that represent a good samp
Notes:
Red font indicates developments that have been added by County Planning
Green Denotes Developments that are Built-out
Projected Total Units - Based on Gross Land Area
Hectares Acres # Units Unts/A
Rolling Meadows (Phase 2)11 28 194 7.0
Lindprop (Phase 3)28 69 480 7.0
Cranberry Road Property (East Side)1 3 22 7.0
67 Cranberry Rd (TVDSB)26 63 443 7.0
Ambrus (west of Cranberry, north of trail)9 21 151 7.0
The Links (Fairway St)5 11 80 7.0
Victoria Wood (West of QTL, S of Concession St W)40 99 696 7.0
Retsinas (Concession & Wilson Ave)0.6 1.4 10 7.0
Westwinds (Southside) - Medium Density Blocks 2 5 36 7.0
Potters Rd (West of Rail Line)5 13 92 7.0
Simcoe St Lands (Jacko)4 9 63 7.0
131 324 2,266
Sample Developments (Units/Gross Area)
Hectares Acres # Units Unts/A
North Crest Phase 2 (North Side)16 40 273 6.8
Lindprop Phase 2 14 36 244 6.8
Ambrus 4 11 49 4.4
Potters Gate Phase 4 5 12 79 6.4
Potters Gate Phase 2 1 3 22 7.4
Potters Gate Phase 3 5 12 88 7.2
Bridges at Tillsonburg Proposed Dev't 12 30 89 3.0
Northcrest Phase 1 (South Side)10 24 158 6.5
360 West 2 5 104 19.4
West Winds (Southside Group)11 28 103 3.7
Andrews Crossing 13 31 183 5.9
136 Concession St W 1 1 49 38.5
Victoria Woods (Remaining Oaks Phases)2 6 32 5.2
13 Wren Court 0 0 10 24.2
98 King St 1 2 49 31.5
143 Tillson Avenue 0 1 49 46.5
83 Rolph St 1 2 46 20.2
3 John Pound Road 0 1 33 34.6
101 North Street East 3 6 59 9.2
Units/H
17.3
17.3
17.3
17.3
17.3
17.3
17.3
17.3
17.3
17.3
17.3
Units/H
16.8
16.8
11.0
15.7
18.2
17.7
7.3
16.1
47.9
9.1
14.5
95.1
13.0
59.9
77.7
114.9
49.9
85.5
22.7
360 QTL Developments 2 1 64 67.1
105 255 1783 7.0
Total Supply 4,049
Less Developed 434
Net Remaining Lots (Approved and raw lands)3,615
Annual consumption
Year Homes town/aprt Total
2017 84 7 91
2018 82 35 117
2019 90 40 130
2020 110 129 239
2021 167 171 338
2022
2023 5 Year Average 183
25 year Demand 4575
Years Supply 19.76
Note the trend line indicates 2023's growth would be 425 units.
165.7 Fully Built Out
17.2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Residential Growth
Homes town/aprt Total Linear (Total)
2023
Population - Census 2021
Oxford County
Geographic name
Population,
2021
Population,
2016
Population
percentage
change, 2016
to 2021 Geographic name
Population,
2021
Population,
2016
Population %
change, 2016
to 2021
Tillsonburg 18,615 15,872 17.3 Blandford-Blenheim 7,565 7,399 2.2
Aylmer 7,492 7,699 2.8 East Zorra-Tavistock 7,841 7,113 10.2
London 543,551 494,069 10.0 Ingersoll 13,693 12,757 7.3
St. Thomas 42,840 38,909 10.1 Norwich 11,151 10,835 2.9
Simcoe 16,121 14,649 10.0 South-West Oxford 7,583 7,634 -0.7
Stratford 33,232 31,470 5.6 Tillsonburg 18,615 15,872 17.3
Woodstock 46,705 41,098 13.6
Oxford County 121,781 110,846 9.9 Zorra 8,628 8,138 6.0
Middlesex Centre 18,928 17,262 9.7 Oxford County 121,781 110,846 9.9
Norfolk County 67,490 64,044 5.4
Perth 81,565 76,812 6.2
Toronto 2,794,356 2,731,571 2.3
Ontario 14,223,942 13,448,494 5.8
Canada 36,991,981 35,151,728 5.2
-5
0
5
10
15
20
TillsonburgWoodstockEast Zorra-TavistockSt. ThomasLondonSimcoeIngersollZorraStratfordNorwichAylmerBlandford-BlenheimSouth-West Oxford Population Percentage Change, 2016 to 2021
Population % change,
2016 to 2021